What can we expect from the steel market in the new year? How are 2026 steel prices shaping up?
Steel prices are always a popular topic with our customers because it is a volatile market, dictated by global events, and the price of steel directly impacts the price of a farm shed.
While the market has stabilised since the dramatic fluctuations during the Covid pandemic, prices remain elevated compared to pre-2020 levels – and it still pays to keep abreast of what is happening.
It helps you understand project costs and supply chain issues, and helps you work out when it is a good time to buy a shed.
So, we are sharing our insights into 2026 steel price expectations.
What We Are Expecting In Early 2026
As we move into 2026, global steel markets are showing signs of stabilising after a softer period through 2024-2025.
With the combination of supply and demand pressures, production costs and policies at play, we are expecting a neutral to moderate market shift.
On demand…
Industry forecasts suggest modest growth in steel demand this year, driven mainly by construction activity picking up in recovering economies. For example, there is strong demand from infrastructure, defense and AI-related projects in regions like India, the EU and US.
While this isn’t expected to create sharp price increases, this rebound will likely counterbalance lower steel consumption in China – and it should help support a more balanced market.
And as Nifty Alloys points out, “If infrastructure spending remains robust in 2026, it puts a floor under prices, preventing them from falling significantly.”
On supply …
At the same time as increased demand in several sectors and regions, the global steel supply remains healthy.
Raw material availability continues to put a ceiling on significant price rises.
Because of this, most analysts expect steel prices to firm slightly in 2026, rather than surge, with ongoing potential for short-term fluctuations.
For example, fluctuation may occur if protectionist policies curb Chinese exports.
Locally in Australia, there has been ongoing media coverage around the long-term outlook of the Whyalla Steelworks.
While the situation remains uncertain, it is not expected to affect the availability of steel used in the shed and rural infrastructure sectors.
This is because Australia’s supply chain is highly diversified, with strong and reliable import channels supplementing local production.
On production costs …
Production costs such as rising energy prices and a transition towards “green steel” (which costs more to produce) are also likely to put upward pressure on 2026 steel prices.
On global events and policies …
It is difficult to predict how global events such as conflicts, geopolitical uncertainties or trade policies will impact 2026 steel prices.
But there are several that may come into play, such as high trade protectionist policies – the US and EU are expected to maintain or increase tariffs and trade barriers to protect domestic producers from lower-priced imports, particularly from China. This will likely increase steel prices in the US and the EU compared to elsewhere.
China has also implemented a “Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025–2026)” aimed at controlling production, optimising existing capacity, and forcing out inefficient mills. If effectively implemented, these policies could help balance the global market and prevent oversupply, which would support prices.
So, in summary, 2026 steel prices will be heavily influenced by policy interventions and a delicate balance between stabilising demand and preventing oversupply.
What Does This Mean For My Farm Shed Project?
For Australian buyers, including the shed and rural infrastructure sector, the factors discussed above mean pricing is likely to remain relatively steady, with only gradual pressures as the year progresses.
Steel is an essential material for a shed build, so any changes to steel prices will directly impact the price of a farm shed.
Here at Action, we monitor the steel market closely. Our quoting system is always updated to reflect the current steel prices, and our shed quotes are valid for 30 days.
This allows our customers to take advantage of any price decreases as soon as they are implemented. This also means that if you have a current shed quote, you will be able to avoid any impending price rises.
Disclaimer: This is a general discussion only, and the information is not intended to be used as financial advice.
If you found this article helpful, you may also like to check out the Pricing Guide Library.
Or for accurate pricing for your 2026 farm shed project, submit a REQUEST A QUOTE form, and we will be in touch!
