What will 2025 steel prices do? Will they go up, down or stay the same?
Steel prices are always a hot topic. Firstly, because it is a volatile market. Secondly, because the price of steel directly impacts the price of farm sheds.
And interest in steel prices has grown in recent years after the impact of COVID-19 on the steel markets saw steel prices increase dramatically.
It pays to stay updated on current steel pricing and how it could impact farm shed prices. For example, it is valuable if you are budgeting for a new project in 2025. Or if you are renewing your farm shed insurance and require an accurate replacement value.
We always try to communicate changes in steel prices well in advance so that you don’t get taken by surprise or get caught out.
So, in this article we discuss the different factors influencing steel prices in Australia, what could happen in 2025 and the general industry expectations for 2025 steel prices.
Top 4 Factors That Influence Steel Prices In Australia
To help predict what could happen to steel prices in 2025, it is important to understand the main factors that cause price rises and decreases.
Below we discuss the top four factors.
1
Australia Is A Net Importer Of Steel
Arguably the number one and overarching factor that influences the price we pay for steel in Australia is the fact that Australia is a net importer of steel.
Being a net importer of steel simply means that the country imports more steel than it exports.
As a result, the price we pay for steel is dictated by the global steel market – and because this is a very volatile market it leads to volatile prices.
For example, when the US dollar is strong, it becomes more expensive for other countries to buy American steel, increasing the price of steel sourced from other countries like China.
This vulnerability is also reflected in the other factors we discuss below.
2
Cost Of Steel Production
The cost of steel is impacted by the cost of raw materials such as iron ore, production costs such as electricity and economic factors like inflationary pressure.
The availability of raw materials can also determine steel prices. For example, a scarcity of coking coal can push steel prices up.
These costs are passed on to the consumer.
3
Supply & Demand
Now, for a back-to-basics economics lesson.
The law of supply and demand applies to the local and global steel markets:
- If supply increases and demand stays the same, prices will fall.
- If supply remains constant and demand decreases, prices will fall.
- If supply decreases and demand stays the same, prices will rise.
- If supply remains constant and demand increases, prices will rise.
For example, a slump in China’s steel consumption (demand) will result in more Chinese steel available for export (supply) placing downward pressure on steel prices.
In contrast, economic stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government could increase the demand for steel and see prices bounce back.
4
Global Conflict & Events
As we mentioned earlier, Australia being a net importer is exposed to the volatility of the global steel market – and events such as conflicts and natural disasters can increase this volatility.
For example, a natural disaster could affect supply lines leading to shortages and increased delivery costs.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is another example that is currently playing out. The Russian attacks have caused further global instability in steel pricing, in particular affecting Azovstal steelworks, the biggest steel producers in Europe.
Similarly, the result of the recent US election will likely come into play. This is because it is expected that the US economy will be strengthened and the demand for steel will increase. Tariffs introduced by the new government could also impact the steel market.
That’s a brief overview of the main factors that influence steel prices
As you can see there are often multiple factors at play. This is why it is hard to predict whether 2025 steel prices go up, down or stay the same.
What Will Make 2025 Steel Prices Go Down?
Here are some examples of events and market conditions that could result in steel prices decreasing in 2025.
- Lower demand due to inflationary pressures, high interest rates and low market confidence or uncertainty due to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict or the war in Ukraine.
- An increase in steel supply due to a continued downward turn in the Chinese real estate market
And as a company, we can also make smart, strategic buying decisions by maintaining our relationships and buying powers with steel suppliers.
What Will Make 2025 Steel Prices Go Up?
Here are some examples of events and market conditions that could result in steel prices increasing in 2025.
- An increased demand for steel for construction projects due to a shortage of timber.
- A decrease in steel supply due to the impact of war on Ukraine’s steel mills and tariffs on Russian steel (Russia is the world’s sixth biggest steel producer)
What Will Make 2025 Steel Prices Stay The Same?
The price of steel in 2025 will stay the same if there are equal pressures on supply and demand.
For example, while a surplus of Chinese steel could lower prices this might be offset by subsidies and continued infrastructure spending encouraged by government policies such as the 100% tax write-off for hay sheds.
So, What Will Steel Prices Do In 2025?
There are multiple factors influencing both the supply and demand for steel and it is difficult to say what impact these will have on 2025 steel prices.
There are still plenty of unknowns too – unfortunately, we don’t have a crystal ball! And general expectations vary too.
For example, wordsteel is “cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will enter a phase of broad-based moderate growth in 2025” with the demand from growing countries like India offsetting the downturn in China.
However, BMI analysts state “Stronger demand growth in India, and possibly, other emerging markets is unlikely to offset the net effect of a China slowdown.”
So far, our steel suppliers have advised that steel prices will remain consistent until around March 2025. From there they could go up, go down or stay the same!
One thing we know for sure is that the market will continue to be volatile.
How Will Steel Prices Impact My Shed?
Steel is an essential material for a shed build, so any changes to steel prices will directly impact the price of a farm shed.
Our quoting system is always updated to reflect the current steel prices, and our shed quotes are valid for 30 days.
This allows our customers to take advantage of any price decreases as soon as they are implemented. This also means that if you have a current shed quote, you will be able to avoid any impending price rises.
Useful Resources
It’s smart to stay up to date on steel prices and the cost of building a farm shed.
Explore our library of pricing guides to learn how to create a cost-effective design and get the most value for your money.
We have also listed some industry articles on 2025 steel prices to give you a more detailed picture of what is happening – and what could happen in the market:
- Worldsteel revises down global steel demand outlook for 2024, expects rebound for 2025
- Steel Price Forecast: Is The Metal Poised For Long-Term Declines?
- What Is The Steel Price Forecast For 2025?
- Metal Prices Set To Remain High In 2024-25
- Chinese downturn to subdue 2025 steel market recovery
So, that is an overview of what could play out with 2025 steel prices!
Budgeting for a new farm shed in 2025? Updating your insurance? For current farm shed pricing call us on 1800 687 888 – or submit a REQUEST A QUOTE and we will be in touch!
Disclaimer: This is a general discussion only and the information is not intended to be used as financial advice.
